U.S. Freight Traffic Down in 2022

U.S. freight railroad carload and intermodal traffic both fell in 2022 the Association of American Railroads reported this week.

Carload traffic was down 0.3 percent while intermodal volume fell 4.9 percent. The comparisons are to calendar year 2021.

Carload traffic for the year was 11,976,283 carloads or 34,001 carloads in 2022. Intermodal volume was 13,452,480 intermodal units or 686,580 containers and trailers.

Total combined U.S. traffic for 2022 was 25,428,763 carloads and intermodal units, a decrease of 2.8 percent compared to 2021.

Single-digit declines occurred during December 2022 when compared with December 2021.

AAR figures showed railroads originated 842,171 carloads in December 2022, down 4.4 percent, or 38,476 carloads.

December 2022 intermodal traffic was 900,213 containers and trailers down 5.2 percent, or 49,107 units compared with the same month in 2021.

Combined U.S. carload and intermodal originations in December 2022 were 1,742,384, down 4.8 percent, or 87,583 carloads and intermodal units from December 2021.

In December 2022, four of the 20 carload commodity categories tracked by the AAR posted gains.

That included motor vehicles and parts, up 5,842 carloads or 12.9 percent; crushed stone, sand and gravel, up 2,034 carloads or 3 percent; and food products, up 721 carloads or 3.2 percent.

Losing ground in December were chemicals, down 16,067 carloads or 12.1 percent; coal, down 12,991 carloads or 5.2 percent; and grain, down 4,589 carloads or 5.2 percent.

“Rail markets are always evolving, and 2022 was no exception,” said AAR Senior Vice President John T. Gray in a statement.

Gray said coal volume grew solidly last year largely because higher natural gas prices made coal-fired electricity generation more competitive.

“However, those same higher natural gas prices, along with other market disruptors, hurt rail chemical volumes since natural gas is a key raw material for chemical manufacturing,” Gray said.

Grain carloads in 2022 were slightly higher than the annual average over the past decade, but they were down compared with 2021, which was the best year for grain carloads since 2008.

Although intermodal traffic in 2022 was the sixth best on record, the grain volume of 2021 was stronger.

U.S. Freight Traffic Up 0.5% in October

Rail freight traffic in October was up 0.5 percent the Association of American Railroads said on Wednesday.

U.S. railroads originated 952,074 carloads last month, the AAR said, which was 5,121 carloads more than they handled in October 2021.

The totals included 1,062,422 containers and trailers, which was a drop of 1.4 percent or 15,095 units, compared with October 2021.

The combined, carload and intermodal originations of 2,014,496 was down 0.5 percent, or 9,974 carloads and intermodal units, from last year.

AAR Senior Vice President John T. Gray said October is usually one of the highest-volume months of the year for rail carloads and has proven to be the best month thus far in 2022.

Gray said intermodal traffic remains subdued largely because of high inventories at many retailers, lower port volumes and still-scarce warehouse capacity for many rail intermodal customers.

During October seven of the 20 carload commodity categories tracked by AAR posted gains.

They included coal, up 14,937 carloads or 5.8 percent; crushed stone, sand and gravel, up 8,615 carloads or 10.7 percent; and motor vehicles and parts, up 5,998 carloads or 11.4 percent. Losing ground were chemicals, down 6,195 carloads or 4.8 percent; primary metal products, down 4,645 carloads or 13.2 percent; and all other carloads, down 4,209 carloads or 16.8 percent.

All comparisons are with October 2021.

Gray noted that grain traffic surged because producers chose rail as an alternative to the Mississippi River constraints. He said motor vehicles traffic had one of its better months since before the COVID-19 pandemic took hold in March 2020.

“Carloads of chemicals were down in part because of high natural gas feedstock prices,” Gray said in a statement.

Excluding coal, carloads were down 9,816, or 1.4 percent, in October compared with October 2021. Excluding coal and grain, carloads were down 8,950, or 1.5 percent.

AAR said rail freight volume in October was similar to the result of July and August when carloads were up and intermodal volume was down.

In September carloads and intermodal volume alike were down compared to the same month in 2021.

Thus far in 2022, U.S. carload traffic has been 9,971,376 carloads, up 0.1 percent, or 14,912 carloads, compared with the first 10 months of 2021.

Intermodal traffic has been 11,321,976 intermodal units, down 4.8 percent, or 567,366 containers and trailers.

Total combined freight traffic for the first 43 weeks of 2022 was 21,293,352 carloads and intermodal units, a 2.5 percent decline compared with last year.

Freight Traffic Down 3.2% in June

U.S. Class I railroads hauled 1,157,555 carloads in June, a decline of 1.5 percent, or 17,970 carloads when compared with the same month in 2021.

The Association of American Railroads said that intermodal traffic this past June was 1,323,119 containers and trailers, a decline of 4.6 percent or 63,483 units compared with June 2021.

Combined U.S. carload and intermodal originations in June 2022 was 2,480,674, a fall of 3.2 percent, or 81,453 carloads and intermodal units compared with the same month last year.

AAR said eight of the 20 carload commodities it tracks posted carload gains in June.

These included crushed stone, sand and gravel, up 7,028 carloads or 7.3 percent; grain, up 4,794 carloads or 4.5 percent; and motor vehicles and parts, up 3,839 carloads or 6.2 percent.

Losing ground were coal, down 10,226 carloads or 3.1 percent; all other carloads, down 7,532 carloads or 23.1 percent; and primary metal products, down 5,388 carloads or 11.6 percent.

Excluding coal, carloads were down 7,744 carloads, or 0.9 percent, in June 2022 from June 2021. Excluding coal and grain, they were down 12,538 carloads, or 1.7 percent.

AAR Senior Vice President John T. Gray said this week that the June traffic report doesn’t indicate whether the economy is on the verge of a recession as many economists are warning.

“Like many other economic indicators today, rail traffic is a mix of red, yellow and green, with some traffic lines, such as automotive, providing generally positive indicators, while others, such as chemicals, being a bit more subdued than they were earlier in the year,” Gray said.

Carload traffic for the first six months of this year was 5,993,917, down 0.1 percent, or 8,823 carloads compared with the first half of 2021.

Intermodal traffic was 6,878,726 intermodal units, down 6.2 percent, or 453,282 containers and trailers.

Total combined U.S. traffic for the first 26 weeks of 2022 was 12,872,643 carloads and intermodal units, a 3.5 percent drop compared with the same period in 2021.

U.S. Rail Freight Traffic Had Mixed March

U.S. rail freight traffic was decidedly mixed during March, the Association of American Railroads reported.

Combined U.S. carload and intermodal originations for the month were 2,507,684, a decline of 3 percent or 78,714 carloads and intermodal units when compared with March 2021.

That breaks down to 1,169,546 carloads—up 1.2 percent or 13,456 carloads compared with the same month in 202.

Intermodal traffic for March 2022 was 1,338,138 containers and trailers, a drop of 6.4 percent or 92,170 units compared with last year.

John T. Gray, AAR senior vice president, said chemical carload traffic had its best month ever but grain, petroleum products and papers products posted significant declines.

At the same time Gray said carloads of crushed stone and sand, food products, lumber, and motor vehicles “were higher than they’ve been in months.”

Calling these trend “conflicting,” Gray said they reflect “an economy with a good deal of directional uncertainty; uncertainty that needs resolution before its full potential can be realized.”

The AAR figures showed that in March nine of the 20 carload commodity categories that it tracks posted gains compared with March 2021.

These included chemicals, up 18,291 carloads or 11.7 percent; coal, up 16,637 carloads or 5.4 percent; and crushed stone, sand and gravel, up 7,974 carloads or 8.5 percent.

Losing ground were grain, down 13,839 carloads or 10.8 percent; petroleum and petroleum products, down 9,033 carloads or 16.5 percent; and all other carloads, down 4,459 carloads or 14.6 percent.

Excluding coal, carloads fell by 3,181, or 0.4 percent. Excluding coal and grain, carloads were up by 10,658, or 1.5 percent.

Total U.S. carload traffic for the first three months of 2022 was 2,987,140, a gain of 2.6 percent, or 76,120 carloads compared with the first three months of 2021.

Railroads handled 3,369,898 intermodal units, a decline of 6.9 percent or 249,672 containers and trailers.

Total combined traffic for the first 13 weeks of 2022 was 6,357,038 carloads and intermodal units, a 2.7 percent decline from 2021.

Rail Freight Traffic Continued to Show Gains

The Association of American Railroads reported Wednesday that U.S. rail freight for the week ending June 12 was 241,628 carloads, an increase of 21.8 percent compared with the same week in 2020.

The railroads hauled 288,007 containers and trailers, a 14.8 percent increase. Total U.S. rail traffic for the week was 529,635 carloads and intermodal units, up 17.9 percent vs. 2020.

AAR said all 10 commodity groups posted gains in traffic compared with last year.

They included coal, up 19,229 carloads, to 69,263; metallic ores and metals, up 8,242 carloads, to 22,789; and chemicals, up 5,489 carloads, to 32,967.

For the first 23 weeks of 2021, U.S. cumulative freight volume was 5,296,418 carloads, an 8.3 percent increase, and 6,494,976 intermodal units, an 18.5 percent rise over last year.

Total combined U.S. traffic for the first 23 weeks was 11,791,394 carloads and intermodal units, a 13.7 percent boost from 2020.  

Freight Traffic Continues Double-Digit Gains

U.S. rail freight traffic was up during the week ending April 24 with intermodal showing a whopping double-digit percent gain.

Of course all weekly traffic figures for the next several weeks come with a footnote, namely that they are inflated when compared to a year ago because in 2020 the economy fell into recession in the early weeks of the COVID-19 pandemic and freight traffic fell with it.

Nonetheless, the Association of American Railroads said the largest monthly gain ever for intermodal came in March 2021 when it rose 24 percent over March 2020. Thus far in April there have been two weeks of 28 percent gains.

For the week ending April 24 total U.S. weekly rail traffic was 538,184 carloads and intermodal units, a 30 percent increase over the same week last year.

Total carloads were 240,075 and intermodal was 298,109 containers and trailers, increasing 25 percent and 34.3 percent, respectively, over the same point in 2020.

All 10 carload commodity groups saw increases last week when compared to 2020.

They included coal, up 16,126 carloads, to 64,252; motor vehicles and parts, up 9,067 carloads, to 11,302; and chemicals, up 6,759 carloads, to 34,843.

For the first 16 weeks of 2021, the cumulative volume has been carloads, up 1.5 percent from the same period in 2020; and 4,493,689 intermodal units, up 16.8 percent from last year.

Total combined U.S. traffic for the first 16 weeks of 2021 was 8,115,768 carloads and intermodal units, up 9.4 percent.

Rail Freight Up 5.3% in January

U.S. railroad freight traffic in January was up 5.3 percent compared to the same month in 2020.

Combined carload and intermodal originations were 2,103,523, or 106,749 carloads and intermodal units higher than last year.

Railroads originated 1,173,220 containers and trailers, increasing 12.1 percent, or 126,548 units, compared with January 2020.

They originated 930,303 carloads for the month, falling 2.1 percent, or 19,799 carloads, from January 2020.

 “We are encouraged by rail volumes in January,” said AAR Senior Vice President John T. Gray in a statement.

“U.S. intermodal shipments and carloads of chemicals set new records; grain had its biggest-ever year-over-year increase; total carloads were the highest they’ve been in a year; and carloads excluding coal actually grew year-over-year for the second straight month.”

Gray said the economy still faces uncertainty but he is cautiously optimistic about the future.

Ten of 20 carload groups posted gains in January 2021.

Grain accounted for an additional 31,434 carloads, a 40 percent increase. Gray said it was the largest increase on a year-over-year comparison.

Excluding coal, carloads increased on a year-over-year basis for the second month.

They were up by 15,557, or 2.3 percent, in January 2021 compared with January 2020.

Carloads excluding coal and grain, however, were down by 15,877, or 2.7 percent.

Also posting increases during January were chemicals, up 5,717 carloads or 4.4 percent; and metallic ores, up 5,190 carloads or 28.7 percent.

Commodities that fell included coal, down 35,356 carloads or 12.7 percent; crushed stone, sand and gravel, down 14,097 carloads or 18.9 percent; and petroleum and petroleum products, down 6,529 carloads or 12.1 percent.

Another Mixed Week for U.S. Rail Freight Traffic

The latest weekly U.S. freight traffic report shows that the gap between 2019 and 2020 is narrowing.

The Association of American Railroads reported that for the week ending Oct. 10 carload traffic was down 5.2 percent, a slight decline from the 5.9 percent of the previous week.

Intermodal traffic rose 8.4 percent creating a 1.9 percent increase in total traffic.

Petroleum and petroleum products, coal, nonmetallic minerals, and motor vehicles and parts accounted for 10 percent of the carload decrease.

For the year to date, overall traffic is down 10.1 percent. Although growing of late, intermodal traffic is down 5.5 percent.

Every commodity group tracked by AAR posted declines compared with 2019 led by a 26.7 drop in coal traffic.

Falling Traffic to Highlight Reports

Ahead of third quarter financial reports being issued by the big six Class I railroads, Wall Street analysts are releasing their projections of what those reports will say.

The analysts project earnings will fall an average of 8 percent at the six publicly traded Class I systems.

Continued declines in traffic will highlight many reports with carload traffic for the industry having falling  9 percent on average during the third quarter.

However, intermodal traffic is on a growth spurt, rising 1 percent on average.

Coal traffic continues to be dismal with Class 1 railroads losing an average of a quarter of their coal volume.

CSX is expected to show the smallest overall quarterly traffic decline.

Overall traffic at CSX is expected to be down 3.8 percent, but its intermodal traffic has risen by a 6 percent.

Earnings at CSX are expected to be down 14.8 percent when it issues its report on Oct. 22.

Canadian National’s earnings are expected to plunge by 13 percent compared with the third quarter of 2019.

Norfolk Southern is expected to report on Oct. 28 a 4.8 percent fall in earnings.

Rail Traffic Down 1% in September

September U.S. rail traffic mirrored the situation that has been going on for weeks.

Intermodal traffic was up and help offset lagging carload traffic, the Association of American Railroads reported this week.

The net result was that freight traffic was down 1 percent in September compared with September 2019 levels.

U.S. railroads hauled 1,119,546 carloads last month, down 9.7 percent compared with September 2019 levels.

The railroads originated 1,423,883 containers and trailers during September, a 7.1 percent increase from the same period a year ago.

Combined, U.S. railroads handled 2,543,429 carloads and intermodal units during September.

“September 2020 was the fourth best intermodal month in history for U.S. railroads, as retailers and others restocked their inventories and prepared for the holiday season,” said AAR Senior Vice President John Gray in a news release.

“Meanwhile, rail carloads, which don’t include intermodal, remained down in September compared with last year, but showed marked improvement compared to a few months ago, especially if you exclude coal.”

Eight of the 20 carload commodity categories tracked by the AAR each month posted gains. This included grain, up 27.8 percent; iron and steel scrap, up 12.2 percent; and grain mill products, up 4.7 percent.

Posting losses were coal, down 24.2 percent; crushed stone, sand and gravel, down 20.9 percent; and chemicals, down 5.6 percent. Excluding coal, carloads were down 2.9 percent. 

Total U.S. carloads hauled during the first nine months of 2020 fell 15.3 percent to 8,567,803 units, while intermodal volume fell 5.9 percent to 10,034,360 containers and trailers.